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Will Recent Rains Bring
Spectacular Wildflower Displays for 2012?
There will be wildflowers blooming in Texas in 2012. Thankfully, the
native wildflowers of Texas know how to survive through a variety of
weather patterns. The question many of us want to know is will there
be spectacular wildflower displays this spring? The recent memories
of the "once in a lifetime" wildflower season of 2010 linger. Like any other plant
wildflowers tend to thrive during optimal conditions.
Rainfall, sunshine and temperature are three of the key conditions
needed for an average or better than average wildflower season in
Texas. All of Texas has been suffering from moderate to severe
drought. Lakes are at an all-time low and some rivers dwindled into
streams or dried up. The recent rainfall events in January have not
been enough to turn that around, but they might increase the chance
for a few
delightful wildflower displays.
2011-2012 Rainfall Analysis:
A moderate to severe La Nina has been
responsible for the lack of or below average rainfall in Texas
throughout much of last year. The La Nina is expected to last
through the end of spring. However, another climate system, the
Arctic Oscillation has been countering the effects of the La Nina
beginning late November through January. The jet stream went into a
"split flow" which allowed the northern portion to bring down cold
air while the southern portion directed a few systems into
our area that brought along some Pacific and Gulf moisture. While
the resulting rainfall has not been enough to break the drought, it
has brought much needed rainfall to most of the key wildflower
areas. There are three key periods of rainfall needed for a more
than average wildflower season:
- Fall (September - November): Many of our
early spring wildflowers including bluebonnets germinated in the
fall. Without adequate rainfall during those months, the season
begins with a deficit of plants. I have seen bluebonnets
germinate outside of those months in respond to warm and wet
winters, but not in great quantities.
- Winter (December - Mid-February): Enough
rainfall to sustain the young plants is needed during these
critical winter months. Without that rainfall or too much
rainfall and the plants could fail to develop roots systems or
have those root systems attacked by mold. I have even seen
plants "drown" in too much water.
- Late Winter - Spring (Late
February - March): Warming temperatures with spring storm
systems mixed with adequate sunshine is the last rainfall
component needed to bring on a spectacular Texas wildflower
show.
Please Note: This is merely an
analysis of rainfall which is only one factor needed for a better
than average wildflower season. Even with less than average
rainfall, I have seen an area do well in the spring. I have also
seen areas with better than average rainfall end up with a less than
spectacular spring flowering.
Brenham Area :
C+ to B- with the possibility of a surprise A here and there.
The Brenham received much less than normal
rainfall in September and October, but there were a few spots
receiving normal rainfall in November. This rainfall in November
could have been enough to germinate some late bluebonnet seeds and
produce a crop of rosettes. However, the subsequent rainfall from
November through January has been less than normal, so the question
is whether those rosettes got enough rainfall to thrive.
Ennis Area :
C+ with some caveats
Ennis received below normal rainfall in
September, October and November which are the critical months for
bluebonnet seed germination. However, they did receive 2-3" of rain
each of those months. That might have been enough to promote
some germination. We have received reports of bluebonnet seedlings
in the Plano area which received about the same amount of rainfall
during that same period of time. From December through January that
area received well above average rainfall. In the past when
the Ennis area receives well above average rainfall in February and
March the bluebonnet plants tend to not develop or are susceptible
to mold especially in areas that do not drain well.
Hill Country :
B to B+ with the possibility of a surprise A here and there.
Parts of the Hill Country received close to normal and slightly
above normal rainfall in October and November. If this was enough to
produce a healthy crop of bluebonnet seedlings then those seedlings
have received normal to above normal rainfall From November through
January. The Hill Country has also had a couple extended
periods of temperatures below 35 F degrees which also helps
encourage growth. In the past 60 days parts
of the Hill Country have received well above normal rainfall which
might be a concern in Ennis where the soil is more clay based, but
not in the sandy loam of Mason County. The one spot that based
solely on rainfall analysis that might surprises us is the southwest
part of Mason County as well as the northern parts of Llano county and
the southern parts of Burnet county near Inks Lake.
San Antonio: C+ to B-
Like most other areas in Texas, San Antonio did not receive near
normal levels of rainfall during September 2011 through November
2011, the critical months of germination for our early spring
wildflowers (including bluebonnets). However there were spots here
and there that did get receive close to or at normal rainfall in
October. The trails near me do have some bluebonnet rosettes,
but nothing close to what was covering the ground in February 2010.
The New Berlin - La Vernia region to the East of San Antonio was not
one of those areas. However in the late November through January
time period it did receive normal to just above normal rainfall.
Again the question is whether enough rainfall fell to encourage
germination and growth of seedlings.
Conclusion: The weather has been a bit unstable
and unpredictable beginning in October of 2011. A fairly moderate to
strong La Nina has been offset by sudden flips in the Arctic
Oscillation combined with a split jet stream flow. Nothing
about this past fall and this winter has been average or normal, so
if the spring weather follows the same pattern it should be a very
interesting season. In the past 10 years that I have been actively
hunting for Texas wildflowers, I have always found a few surprises
each season. I think this season potentially will present more
surprises than normal. The other caveat is that opportunistic
plants tend to do better during erratic periods of weather. I
am seeing fairly large areas of the invasive mustard plant near
where I live. Invasive and opportunistic plants have the potential
to overwhelm other species of wildflowers including Texas
bluebonnets. Given all of the variables this year, spotter
reports from the field will be especially helpful to find any
spectacular Texas wildflower displays that hopefully will happen
this spring.
What could
help?
More Rain!
The current La Nina pattern appears to
be entrenched through April and the NOAA climate predictions call
for above normal temperature and below normal rainfall through
April. However the complications of the Arctic Oscillation might
bring in just enough rainfall to make for an average wildflower
season in spots.
(see
NOAA Climate Outlook: January - April 2012).
Sunshine!
Wildflowers do need sun. One year the Hill
Country the most March was a warm, cloudy damp month, and that
pretty much wiped out several fields in the Fredericksburg area due
to mold growth. So in between the rainfall events we hope to also we
get adequate
sunshine.
We need your report! In years of
bounty like 2010 the only question is where will I go today to see
the next great display? In lean years, we need input from wildflower
spotters to find those few "good spots" out there. So please, if you
spot wildflowers blooming send us your report (Wildflower
Reports).
You can
also follow us
on twitter - @wildflowerhaven and on Facebook at
Community WildflowerHaven. Put your report on the Map at:
Texas Wildflower
Reports!
The key factors for a good wildflower season include:
- Adequate rainfall
and warm temperature
in the fall to support good seed germination.
- Sustaining rainfall
in the winter to
promote growth of healthy seedling root systems.
- Sunshine, warming temps
and normal rainfall in the late winter (Feb-March)
to encourage growth of plants and bloom stalks.
Cooler temperatures in March will tend to delay the
blooming period. Warming temperatures with good
rainfall will tend to promote an early and longer
season.
- Less competing vegetation -
Dead vegetation
from previous seasons was burned away or removed.
Native grasses prevail in the area with little or no
invasive plant species.
- Proper
mowing
- Grass
mowed in late August and again in late January (but
not too low to remove seedling rosettes). Mowing
during the prime blooming months of Mar-May can
literally kill a good wildflower display. Sadly, I
have seen more of this in recent years.
Well for one thing, I can guarantee there will be
some wildflowers blooming somewhere in Texas this year.
Please hunt wildflowers only with your camera.
Happy Hunting! - RichO
Twitter - @wildflowerhaven
Facebook at
Community WildflowerHaven
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