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Update 3/26/2007: Reality trumps forecasts any day of the week. The reality is that we got rain in South Texas and we are getting more rain. I still do not think the amount of rain will be a problem for most areas especially for those areas that drain well. Areas with standing water will probably suffer the most damage as that will not only drown most plants but also encourage growth of plant fungus and molds. The reports that have been coming into me personally, here at WildflowerHaven Community and "Wild About Wildflowers" indicate that most areas are experiencing a better than average wildflower season. Here in San Antonio, I have seen wildflowers blooming in spots that I have not seen them in several years. So the "bluebonnet" part of the season should be very nice, but it will likely be a banner year for the May wildflowers.
Update 3/1/2007: NOAA is now predicting a quick transition from ENSO neutral conditions to La Nina condition before the end of spring. La Nina conditions usually bring warmer and drier conditions to the southern states. Rainfall during the month of February was well below normal for all of Texas. Most of the key wildflower viewing areas of South Texas received a trace to less than an inch of rain during February. The forecast for the first half of March does not include rain. Lack of rain during most of February and March will certainly have a negative impact on wildflower flowering for South Texas.
Update: 2/26/2007
Hill Country
Only a trace to less than an inch of rain has fallen in the heart of the Texas Hill Country during the month of February. This is below normal and I am beginning to worry a bit about the Hill Country's season. There is still hope that rainfall during March will be normal or near normal. Remember, bluebonnets and other native wildflowers are fairly drought tolerant. In places where there is good seedling growth present, the spring rains will help make those plants larger and have more bloom stalks. Where there is little or no seedling growth, the spring rains will have little effect except to help germinate the late May and summer wildflowers.
Brenham - Industry
See Bill Purcell's very detailed report below of seedling growth in the Brenham area. Bill saw several areas with very good seedling growth and even a few early bluebonnet and paintbrush blooms. The Brenham area rainfall during the month of February was also below normal; however, the observed rainfall amounts ranged between .5 inches to 1 inch. The Brenham area still needs several good rainfalls during the month of March to encourage good growth and flowering of the existing plants.
Update 2/22/207: The moderate El Nino has significantly weakened in the past three weeks. NOAA forecasters now call for the El Nino to transition to a neutral state during the spring with a possibility of La Nina conditions by summer. If this holds true then rainfall is likely to be normal to less than normal for areas west of I-35 corridor from Austin to San Antonio and normal to slightly above normal for areas to the east of the I-35 corridor. Significantly lower rainfall between now and the end of March will likely result in a less than average wildflower season for most of the Hill Country.
I received a good report of bluebonnet seedlings in the San Saba County area. Bluebonnet rosettes were easily spotted from the road along Willow City Loop.
Another report just received was not so favorable for areas along SH-16 in Llano County and SH-29 near Burnet. Conditions looked very dry and bluebonnets plants were scarce. The Hill Country needs 2 to 3 good rainfalls between now and the end of March, to encourage the seedlings that are there to grow.
Bottomline: Pray or dance for rain during March!
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South Texas Summary: This year’s wildflower season is likely to be average to slightly above average in most areas of South Texas with the exception of the DeWitt County area (Cuero). Some localized above normal flowering could be seen in the Industry and Brenham areas. Willow City Loop should have at least an average season for bluebonnets this year if rainfall is the only factor. Based solely on rainfall rates, this season looks to be much better than last year. Rainfall rates in South Texas have been near normal to normal in the key wildflower hunting areas. The exception is DeWitt County which has had below normal rainfall for September through November. Rainfall analysis only helps to pick out the spots likely to have received enough rain for germination and seedling growth. Seedling reports are key to knowing if a spot truely has plants that can then bloom.
Hill Country – average season
Rainfall rates in the Hill Country have been near normal to slightly above normal in September through October. November rainfall rates were slightly below normal for all of the Hill Country. Winter rainfall rates have been erratic with most of the Hill Country averaging slightly below normal for December and significantly above normal for January.
Hopeful areas: Willow City Loop and Prairie Mountain are two areas that could experience a slightly better than average bluebonnet flowering. Both of these areas received average to slightly above average fall rainfall. I have had a couple reports of good seedling growth along the north portions of Willow City Loop.
Possible issues: I am concerned that given the continual El Nino weather pattern parts of the Hill Country could receive too much rain and too little sunshine during the critical growing period of mid-February through March. (See update above)Temperatures have also remained slightly below average during January. Areas that do not drain well or are too shaded during the day will not fair well for a good bluebonnet flowering. We could also see another round of fungal infections of bluebonnet roots/stems in bluebonnet fields that do not drain well as we did in 2004.
Dewitt County Area (Cuero) – below average season
Most of Dewitt County received slightly below average rainfall for September and October and well below normal rainfall for November. Given the low fall rainfall rates, I do not have high hopes of a good wildflower season for the DeWitt County area. This does not mean there will not be wildflowers blooming, but only that the rainfall rates do not support having a good season or above normal wildflower season.
Brenham and Industry Area – average to slightly above average season
The Brenham and Industry area received near normal to slightly above normal rainfall for September and October and below normal rainfall for November. Rainfall rates for December were near normal to normal. January rainfall rate was above normal, but not too far above normal to be a concern except in low-lying areas that do not drain well. There should have been enough rainfall during the fall for a good propagation of bluebonnet seedlings. Other areas near Brenham and Industry to watch include La Grange and Schulenburg. Last year Schulenburg had several really nice bluebonnet fields. Those fields should have received sufficient rainfall in the fall to support good germination. The key will be if the rainfall in November was sufficient to encourage growth of a good root system.
Possible Issues: Again, the present El Nino weather pattern is forecasted to remain moderate through April. (See update above) This means the Brenham – Industry area could experience well above normal rainfall with below normal number of sunshine days. These conditions tend to encourage fungal growth which could expose bluebonnets plants to infections. Fields in low-lying areas and fields with soils that do not drain well will be more susceptible.
South Texas September 2006 Rainfall
http://community.wildflowerhaven.com/photos/climate/picture1733.aspx
South Texas October 2006 Rainfall
http://community.wildflowerhaven.com/photos/climate/picture1734.aspx
South Texas November 2006 Rainfall
http://community.wildflowerhaven.com/photos/climate/picture1735.aspx
Download full report with maps at:
http://download.wildflowerhaven.com/Texas_Wildflower_Report_2007-South_Texas_Rainfall.pdf
RichO
Hunting Texas Wildflowers
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