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When Thanksgiving comes around it is time to take inventory of how much rain has fallen in Texas. Fall rainfall is one critical factor that influences how well the spring Texas wildflower show will be. This is particularly true for the Texas bluebonnets. The Texas bluebonnets germinate in the fall and spend the winter build a good root system while waiting for the spring rains. Little or no rainfall during Sep-Nov could result in significantly fewer seeds germinating into bluebonnet seedlings.
This year's late spring and summer record breaking rainfall was followed by below average rainfall in late August through late September. In my experience September-October rainfall is more significant for a good wildflower showing in the Hill Country. However, bluebonnet seeds can germinate as late as the end of November, so any rainfall from Sep through November can help to get those bluebonnet seeds growing into healthy bluebonnet plants.
So where has the rain fallen in Texas this fall?
From this map of observed rainfall in Texas from Sep 22-Nov 22, it looks like the Schulenberg (Fayette County ) and Industry (Austin County) faired better than most. Fayette, northern Colorado and most of Austin counties recorded above normal rainfall in the past 60 days.
The Hill Country suffered the greatest loss in rainfall, but did received over 5-6 inches between Sep-Nov in some parts like Willow City Loop.
Overall, I think there was enough rainfall to get those bluebonnet seedlings germinating in most parts of the best wildflower viewing areas.
Where will the rain fall during the winter?
The moderate El Niño this past spring and summer was followed by a moderate La Niña. La Niñas usually result in drier conditions for Texas. Current NOAA is forcasting a continuation of moderate La Niña conditions through December, but weakening in January-February.
What does this all mean?
Based solely on current rainfall patterns it looks like we can hope for a slightly below average to average wildflower season in the Hill Country and an average to slight above season in East Texas and North Texas. December rainfall is not as critical as late January and February rainfall, so there is still hope that some areas will survive the La Nina conditions and experience a good wildflower showing.
When we get some first-hand reports on seedling growth we will have a better picture on just how many bluebonnets germinated this fall.
In the meantime...
I pray you and your family are having a great Thanksgiving holiday.
Happy Thanksgiving!
RichO
Hunting Texas Wildflowers
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